The Climate Clock is Ticking Backwards- And Our World is at Stake

Throughout 2024, the world was engrossed in the theater of conventions, summits and endless polling. Hiding in plain sight was a far more consequential drama unfolding– an alarming escalation of global temperatures. Decades of warnings about global warming, initially a theoretical threat, had culminated into a reality in 2024– arguably the hottest year ever. In fact, we have witnessed all twenty of the hottest years ever recorded in the past three decades itself.

The World Meteorological Organization reports that, between 2014 and 2023, global temperatures soared to 1.2°C above late 19th-century levels. The figure seems modest, but the environmental havoc it brought has been massive. 

“We are now truly in uncharted territory,” David Carlson, the former director of the World Meteorological Organization's warned in the spring of 2017, after data revealed that the preceding year had shattered global heat records.

Frequent and extreme weather events, such as scorching heatwaves and torrential rainfall, have become common in Europe. Glaciers and ice sheets are melting at an alarming rate resulting in rising sea levels. The Arctic sea ice has dwindled dramatically, and warming oceans fuel powerful storms and hurricanes that endanger delicate ecosystems like coral reefs.

The human toll is equally devastating. In 2022, East Africa witnessed its most severe drought in four decades, plunging over 20 million people into the grip of hunger. Concurrently, Europe’s heat waves resulted in an abnormal surge in fatalities across the continent. 

We know far more about climate change and its impact, by numbers and degrees, than we have ever known in human history. At this juncture, we even know the solution– reducing greenhouse gas emission, driving sustainable development, promoting afforestation etc. Then, what’s going wrong? 

To understand the way forward, it is necessary to understand the present. How deep waters is the climate in?

Understanding Climate Change: What Damage Do We Have to reverse? 

Impact of climate change is different for each part of the globe. But across the world, scientists have reached consensus on limiting long-term temperature rise (or global warming) to 1.5°C as a critical threshold. In the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, nearly 200 nations committed to this goal.

The urgent push to limit warming to 1.5°C is driven largely by the fear of crossing irreversible "tipping points." If breached, a number of catastrophic events are forecasted. Collapse of the Greenland ice sheet tops that list. 

A 2°C rise, compared to 1.5°C, could have severe consequences:

• Extreme Heat Waves: Mid-latitude regions could experience significantly more intense heat waves with temperatures soaring 4°C higher.

• Sea Level Rise: An additional 0.1 meter rise could expose millions of people to the threat of frequent flooding.

• Coral Reefs: Coral reefs might experience near-total extinction at 2°C, compared to a significant loss of 70-90% at 1.5°C.

The threshold, however, is not a static marker but rather a long-term average. Recent spikes in global temperatures, such as those observed in late 2023, do not count for a breach of the 1.5°C limit. Natural climate variability, influenced by factors like El Niño, can temporarily elevate global temperatures. 

The bigger problem? Human activities. 

Earth's history has witnessed several periods of heightened atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but the current rate of increase is unparalleled. 

Climate has fluctuated naturally throughout history. However, the rapid warming observed in the past century cannot be attributed solely to natural cycles. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) asserts that human activities are the primary driver of this unprecedented warming.

Climate action, or inaction, is measured by various parameters. A number of methods are globally developed and agreed upon by scientists. There are satellites to begin with for measuring various aspects of climate change, including sea ice extent, atmospheric composition, land surface changes etc. 

Another such observatory is ice cores. Scientists extract cylindrical ice cores from deep within the polar ice sheets, often drilling over a mile into the Greenland and Antarctic ice. Along with it, they collect samples from high-latitude ice caps and glaciers. 

The ice holds tiny air bubbles that act as time capsules and give a window into the ancient atmosphere. By analyzing these air samples, scientists measure past concentrations of three key gasses, including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. Also known as greenhouse gasses, these are largely the driving factors of the increased global temperatures. The accumulation, or trapping of these gasses in our atmosphere is the result of what can be called a domino effect.

How Are Trees And Temperature Linked?

Relentless deforestation is aggravating the global climate crisis. Trees, which are nature's carbon sinks, are being cut at an alarming rate. They release vast quantities of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere. This surge in emissions, coupled with the loss (and lack of) of forest capacity to absorb carbon is disrupting the ecological balance.

The interplay between forests and climate change is a complex one. Trees, through photosynthesis, absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and release oxygen. This natural equation helps to regulate the Earth's climate. However, when forests are cleared for agriculture, logging, or urban development, the stored carbon is released back into the atmosphere, contributing to the greenhouse effect.  

Consequences of deforestation are far beyond just climate change. Forests are vital ecosystems that provide habitat for countless species, protect water resources, and regulate soil erosion. Loss of forest cover equates to a loss of biodiversity, water scarcity, and soil degradation. The results are floods, droughts, and wildfires.

While technology can be a powerful tool in the fight against deforestation and climate change, it is not a panacea. It is crucial to understand what drives deforestation. Human activities- yes. But that is also accelerated by underlying social factors. To achieve lasting solutions, we must address the causes that include poverty, inequality, and unsustainable consumption patterns. 

As for earth’s scoreboard in the ice, the numbers are concerning. A study published in Nature Geoscience states that global temperatures are 1.49 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as of the end of 2023. This figure was determined by analyzing carbon dioxide concentrations trapped in Antarctic ice cores. 

The path to a climate-stable future is dependent on a two-pronged approach to global forests. It involves preserving (and restoring) forests to safeguard our planet’s ecological integrity, while simultaneously managing working forests sustainably to fuel a circular bioeconomy.

The balancing act of between conservation and utilization is becoming increasingly urgent as climate disasters escalate and human inaction persists. Sustainable forestry and forest conservation both offer a powerful tool to mitigate climate change and foster a greener future. Here’s how.

Reversing the Damage: Sustainable Development and Forest Conservation

1. Sustainable Forestry: Increased Forest Land Value

Sustainable forestry considers the economic, social, and ecological dimensions of development. These three pillars are interconnected. 

The forest sector is at the crossroads of environmental responsibility and economic opportunity. Of course, we need to preserve it. But the now cleared forest land is home to important production facilities. Further, they are a source of livelihood for millions. 

Sustainable forestry practices can be promoted simultaneously with increasing demand for responsibly sourced forest products. It can drive reforestation efforts on a significant scale. A robust market for sustainable wood products not only provides economic incentives for landowners to plant and manage forests but also helps safeguard them from conversion to other land uses.

While concerns persist about the impact of forest product demand on deforestation, the reality is more nuanced. The primary driver of deforestation remains agricultural expansion. By increasing the economic value of working forests, we can effectively deter such conversions. Moreover, research suggests that sustainably managed forests can be more resilient to deforestation pressures.

Regulations will be required to ensure that there are guidelines of functioning. For the forest sector to contribute to environmental conservation, it is imperative that producers and consumers adhere to stringent deforestation-free standards throughout the entire supply chain.

2. Community Efforts

Few local communities and their practices that have been guardians of nature for millennia. By empowering these communities, we not only safeguard our environment but also honor the wisdom of generations past. Closer home, tribals have for long been the protectors of our forest.

The quiet revolution in Mendha Lekha, a village tucked away in Maharashtra, offers a strong example of community-led conservation. Here, a bunch of villagers have successfully managed 1,800 hectares of forest. Not only has it increased green cover but also bolstered local, self-sustained economies. 

Such models are exemplified by Uttarakhand's Van Panchayats and the Forest Rights Act's Community Forest Resource right. They proven to be potent tools for sustainable forest management.

Across the globe, the Senegalese villagers of Casamance and Siné Saloum made environmental history. More than a decade ago, they embarked on an ambitious endeavor of planting 80 million mangrove trees. 

Today, these restored mangroves sequester over 160,000 tons of carbon annually, equivalent to taking a fleet of cars off the road. Beyond climate benefits, the coastal ecosystem has revitalized local livelihoods and yields an additional 4,200 tons of seafood each year.

3. Shift towards green energy

India's insatiable energy appetite, fueled by its rapid economic growth, presents a critical challenge. Traditionally, fossil fuels, particularly coal, have powered the nation's industrialization. However, as climate concerns intensify and global leadership is taking onus, there is growing favor for a transition to green energy.

Unexpectedly, India's vast railway network is the torch bearer in what might be India’s second green revolution. Indian Railways is now on a mission to achieve net-zero emissions by 2030. The department has taken significant efforts, including the deployment of solar-powered trains, electrification of tracks, installation of solar panels at stations, and the implementation of waste-to-energy projects. 

These initiatives are coupled with India’s booming start-up culture. New-age, energy-efficient technologies and extensive afforestation drives by large corporations, have positioned India as a global leader in true sense. 

India's commitment to a greener future extends beyond its railways. The country is actively pursuing government policies, private sector partnerships, and innovative solutions to address climate change. By adopting renewable energy sources, sustainable practices, and investing in green technologies, India is set to balance economic growth with environmental responsibility.

4. Forest Thinning 

Forest thinning is another sustainable forestry practice. It involves the selective removal of trees within a stand to support the growth and health of the remaining trees. It is a targeted intervention and serves multiple purposes.

It enhances timber quality by eliminating slow-growing or malformed specimens and also adjusts stand density for improved water yield. By carefully regulating the forest's structure, thinning can influence the ecosystem's overall health and resilience.

The benefits of forest thinning are long-term. A well-thinned forest can contribute to a healthier hydrological cycle. By reducing competition for water and nutrients, thinned stands can experience increased water infiltration and reduced surface runoff, mitigating soil erosion and preserving water quality. Furthermore, thinning can help regulate water flow, reducing the risk of flooding and drought.

Thinning can also enhance biodiversity. It creates a more open canopy and allows sunlight to reach the forest floor. This way, the growth of understory vegetation and creating diverse habitats for a range of wildlife species is possible. The removal of suppressed trees can also stimulate the growth of remaining trees, leading to larger, healthier, and more valuable timber.

It's important to note that thinning is not a one-time event. As the forest matures, repeated thinning operations may be necessary to maintain optimal stand conditions. The governments must plan and execute thinning treatments backed by proper research. It can balance the competing demands of timber production, ecosystem health, and climate resilience.

5. Individual efforts 

The onus of combating climate change isn't solely on industries. Individuals actions or lifestyles also culminate into climate effects. 

On the surface, it might sound insignificant. While our collective carbon footprint is immense, our individual actions, when multiplied, can significantly impact the environment. By making conscious choices and adopting sustainable habits, we can contribute to a healthier planet.

Simple acts can make a difference. It can be opting for public transport over private vehicles, that significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Replacing traditional light bulbs with energy-efficient LEDs further minimizes our carbon footprint. Investing in energy-efficient appliances reduces electricity consumption and also lowers our dependence on fossil fuel-powered power plants.

Moreover, reducing plastic waste is crucial. Minimizing our use of single-use plastics, can curb plastic pollution and reduce the demand for fossil fuels. Finally, planting trees is a powerful way to combat climate change. 

Collective impact of these choices is profound. By embracing sustainable lifestyles and making conscious choices, we can contribute to a more sustainable future. Remember, small steps can lead to significant change. Let's take action today and create a better tomorrow for ourselves and generations to come.

Conclusion

For decades, the narrative around climate change has oscillated between two extremes: an optimism that normalcy might persist, and a dystopian vision of an ecological apocalypse. These contrasting perspectives have been reflected in numbers, research and hope of a better tomorrow. 

Limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, is seen as a pathway to a relatively stable future. Conversely, failing to curb emissions and allowing temperatures to rise above three or four degrees was projected to lead to catastrophic consequences.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects a staggering 75 percent surge in global electricity demand by 2050. This escalating demand for power is driven largely by rapidly developing nations in Africa and Southeast Asia as they are at the brink of economic growth. But it serves as a stark reminder of our energy-hungry future. Even in the United States, after a period of relative stasis, energy consumption is once again on the rise.

The concept of sustainability, once a niche concern, has now permeated corporate boardrooms. It is no longer sufficient to focus solely on the end product; the entire supply chain, from raw materials to retail, must adhere to ethical and ecological principles. For multinational corporations, embracing sustainability can offer a competitive edge, potentially reshaping global supply chains that have long prioritized cost over conscience.

Our forests are often overlooked in the grand scheme of technology driven solutions, and offer a compelling alternative. A strategic approach to forestry can alleviate pressure on the ecosystems and foster equitable rural development. The paradoxical act of cutting trees, when followed by replanting, yields a multitude of benefits, from carbon capture to economic growth.

As the world grapples with the urgency of energy transition, India stands at a crucial juncture. Reducing dependency on coal is important, but it must be accompanied by a fair transition that protects the livelihoods of those dependent on the industry. This issue isn’t a national concern, but a global challenge. Developing nations are at the crossroads of balancing economic aspirations with environmental responsibility.

However, the true impact of this shift hinges on the commitment of corporate, governmental and even individual stakeholders. Can we bring about a paradigm shift? Only time, which we seem to be running short of, can tell if sustainability becomes a driving force in the global economy, or if it remains a distant dream.

Author bio

I am Anezka Saraogi, and I am a Mass Media graduate. Currently, I work as a Marketing Associate at a software company called Abaqus Inc. I am deeply interested in global politics, climate & sustainability and I continue to pursue these interests by reading or writing about it. 

Photograph: Link